Communization of Hong Kong

DARSITA

Originally posted by Adm_Cheng_Ho at 28-4-04 12:46 AM:
in Taipei people may be asking themselves: "If that's what autonomy within China amounts to, is it really what we want?"

The renegade province of Taiwan better accept a one country, two systems deal like the Hong Kong or Macau SAR's or else China has every right to take any measures it wants.

Debmey,

The best way to achieve democrasy in China is to first Christianise China. Jiang Zemin realised that and have said so. Thats why they close one eye on the phenomenal growth of Christainity and allowed thousands of missionaries into China.

--> Try not to religious-ize everything in the world. I mean would it come to a point where 'Eh, prices of McDs increase lah'..."Tsk tsk, those people must be Christians first, then the price will come down."

Debmey

Originally posted by DARSITA at 2004-5-16 05:28 AM:



The renegade province of Taiwan better accept a one country, two systems deal like the Hong Kong or Macau SAR's or else China has every right to take any measures it wants.[ ...

In case yu are not aware, the Chinese govt by its stance have already accepted the reality of two separate states. Otherwise they would have attacked Taiwan long ago.

Debmey

Originally posted by WinterNights at 2004-5-16 07:57 AM:
Debmey,



--> Try not to religious-ize everything in the world. I mean would it come to a point where 'Eh, prices of McDs increase lah'..."Tsk tsk, those people must be Christians firs ...

I am merely stating the views of Jiang. Its reality.

Debmey...you're a funny guy! Why would China attack Taiwan when it can't and won't? If they have accepted the reality of 2 separate states, why don't Beijing just grant them independence?

On military assault, my assertion is based on past & current conditions not applied to future development of the event.

Militarily:
There are 2 scenarios for China to takeover Taiwan by force:
(1) Seaborned invasion.
China has no seaborne invasion capability to invade Taiwan across 180 miles of the ocean. Its navy is very much antiquated. Not up to the task of carrying army on a serious amphibious invasion mission. The Chinese invasion fleet would risk being blown out of the sea by anti-ship missiles with many thousands of troops becoming shark feed. Thus, for this instance, they'd be seen as useless.

(2) Intercontinental Ballistic Missile (ICBM) assault.
This option is most undesirable & very unlikely for it would meant total annihilation of the island. All Taiwan has to do is to line up Aegis Destroyer which is capable of simultaneous detection of up to 200 incoming targets across their coastal line and also places Patriots (PAC 3) along its land.

This would reduce if not total immunity from Chinese missile attacks by more than half. This approach however is not very likely to gain submission from renegade Taiwan but pissed off moderate Taiwanese & the world. Thus, in this instance, China would be seen as brutal.

They have the numbers but do they have the quality?

Apart from the 2 unlikely scenarios, China is also reducing its military manpower in favour of its space industry. There are more than 1 million staffs working in the Jiuquan Space Station & are expecting 1 million more coming from the PLA cut down.

Economically:
Most Taiwanese companies have heavy investments and family connections on the mainland. A ruined Taiwan is akin to destroying a trading partner & shooting itself in the foot.

Barging into Taiwan is equally pointless & costly. A screwed up takeover of HK already costing Beijing a hell lot of money & also worthless. Shanghai is the new gateway to the Wests. Why take a ruined Taiwan again? A failed war would pull China back several years thus jeopardised its primary aim of at least economic parity with the Wests.

Therefore, for this instance, it is economically devastating for China.

By 2019, when the economic situation in China is sufficiently attractive, then, with provisions that there is also political & social improvement at that time, Taiwan is very likely to rejoin China.

However, last 2 weeks China had concede they might face impending economic implosion as predicted by economists. They'd rather focus on its economy than a war with a useless island.

Politically:
The propaganda we read from both sides is part of a poker game between the two sides which is a prelude to negotiations which will start in twenty years time.

The USA is not very likely to stand up for Taiwan's independence. Why would American give their lives for a renegade province? The Yankies are trying to exploit some economic & business gains from this conflict. In the case of war, inflicting damages on the Chinese will not be coming from America but via Taiwan. :devil:

China would rather wait for a favourable conditions without war for Taiwan to crawl back. Within 20 years, China is expected to become richest country & economically mighty. An attraction to Taiwan & America. America would marginalize Taiwan in favour of stronger Sino-American relation due to economic benefits. With a militarized space station, America would back off from Taiwan. Leaving the island politically ostracized & unpopular.

This is how things work.

Thus, for this instance, a fallout with Taiwan is politically ruinous for the CCP.

Therefore, current tension is psychological warfare. America would send aircraft carriers to South China Sea whenever China has naval/missile tests. It is part of a game that the CCP and the Taiwanese as well as Sinologists in the US all understand and is nothing to get excited about.It is simply 'expectation shaping' by both sides. Taiwan and the US are saying to China "Don;t even think of invading" while the Chinese with their propaganda and missile tests are saying "Don't even think of declaring Independence".


The above are my analysis. Many of us also realize Taiwanese recognize themselves FIRST & FOREMOST as Chinese except their disapproval of CCP.

[ Last edited by Adm_Cheng_Ho on 16-5-2004 at 02:49 PM ]

The renegade province of Taiwan better accept a one country, two systems deal like the Hong Kong or Macau SAR's or else China has every right to take any measures it wants

Darsita, all China has to do is create unfavourable conditions against the Taiwanese, they will join back the fold. They must ensure economic prosperity & military might (space militarization) to prise away American backing of Taiwan. Then... checkmate!

DARSITA

Originally posted by Adm_Cheng_Ho at 15-5-04 10:51 PM:


Darsita, all China has to do is create unfavourable conditions against the Taiwanese, they will join back the fold. They must ensure economic prosperity & military might (space militarizati ...

Agree. With China's economy continuing to grow at a consistently huge rate in the coming years, Taiwan will be sucked into the Chinese economic sphere, like the rest of South East Asia. It may take 10 or 20 more years but Taiwan will return to China.

ariyamusafir

Originally posted by Debmey at 14-5-2004 13:16:
Jiang realised after studying history and sociology that the secret to the success of westen nations is their christan values.
if yu liberalise china w/o these values, there will surely be chaos.  ...

Are you sure he said that? Or is it just your own manipulation and twisting like you did before. By the way, now the President is Hu, not Jiang anymore, though Jiang still have power.

[ Last edited by ariyamusafir on 17-5-2004 at 05:37 PM ]

Kazuo

Originally posted by John Lennon at 2004-5-14 10:24 PM:
If China is Christianised, it will turn into another dictatorial country like U.S
......so China is better be secularized like E.U.

ya.... we can say this exact same thing ab msia.  

ab HK, china had tapped on HK's economic success by building up shenzen's economy mainly bcos of its close proximity to HK.  ppl in shenzen are now very happy with the chinese govt.... almost patriotic even despite its govt's bad track record on human rights.  this is due to shenzen's economic success.  since ppl of HK are mainly business ppl, this issue on democracy might not be so much of a prob over time bcos over time, they may be happy like the  citizens of shenzen.  yes, they may hoohah now but over time they might get used to it so long as china takes care of HK's economy.  besides, china would not be so stupid to jeopardize HK's economy.  this is very difficult for HKongers but there's nothing much they can do bcos HK has always belonged to china... not even the 50 yrs agreement/treaty will make them feel any better as is evidenced today.